Playbooks · the pro's toolkit
Ask like a professional.
The questions that separate retail investors from professionals aren't harder to phrase — they're harder to answer well because you don't know which factors to check. A playbook is a reusable answer template that carries a professional's checklist into a question you can run for any name, event, or macro release.
Explore by category and asker archetype below.
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We're still building the live run engine. Tap 'Request this analysis' on any playbook and we'll run it for you by email. Tiered service (Free / Core / Premium) is on the roadmap.
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No exact match — here are all playbooks.
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Move attribution
👤 ⚡ 💎 📊Why did this stock move today?
Rank the plausible causes of a single-name move with source citations and time-of-news markers.
Example triggers
- "why is <ticker> up/down"
- "what's happening with <ticker>"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Historical analog
💎 🌐 📊 ⚡When did this pattern happen before?
Find the closest historical analogs to a market event and report what followed as a distribution — not an anecdote.
Example triggers
- "has this happened before"
- "historical parallels for <event>"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Regulatory / legal
💎 🌐 ⚖️How have similar lawsuits / antitrust cases played out?
Trace how comparable regulatory / legal cases progressed and what remedies were ultimately imposed.
Example triggers
- "what happened in similar antitrust cases"
- "how long do these lawsuits take"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Structural vs cyclical
💎 🌐 📊Is this change structural or cyclical?
Determine whether a change is a permanent re-rating (structural) or a swing that will mean-revert (cyclical).
Example triggers
- "is this the new normal"
- "will <thing> recover"
- "structural or cyclical"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Risk & sizing
📊 ⚡ 💎How deep and how long — drawdown & recovery distribution
For an event class, get the historical distribution of max drawdown, duration, and time-to-recovery.
Example triggers
- "how far could it fall"
- "how long until recovery"
- "worst case for <ticker>"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Positioning & flow
💎 📊 ⚡What did institutional investors do this quarter?
Parse the latest 13F filings to reveal who bought, who sold, and what that says about positioning.
Example triggers
- "who owns <ticker>"
- "what did <fund> buy"
- "berkshire 13f"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Corporate actions
💎 ⚡ 👤What does a CEO / CFO / board change mean for the stock?
Read a management change: bull signal (talented new CEO), bear signal (CFO fleeing accounting), or noise (planned succession).
Example triggers
- "<CEO> steps down"
- "new CEO of <company>"
- "CFO resignation"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Macro datapoint
🌐 ⚡ 📊 ⚖️How should the market read this macro release?
Decode a scheduled macro release (CPI, NFP, Fed, PMI, GDP) — headline vs composition vs policy repricing.
Example triggers
- "CPI came in at <X>"
- "Fed decision today"
- "NFP miss"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Competitive landscape
⚡ 📊 💎Who else moves when this stock / event moves?
Map competitors, suppliers, customers, and substitutes — and rank the second-order plays.
Example triggers
- "who benefits from <event>"
- "who loses from <event>"
- "collateral impact of <X>"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Behavioral
⚡ 📊 💎Is this news already priced in?
Determine whether the market has already absorbed the information — before you trade the news.
Example triggers
- "should I buy on this news"
- "is this priced in"
- "market didn't react — why"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Risk & sizing
⚡ 📊 💎 👤What would this trade have made — parameterized backtest
If I invested X at Y on Z and held N days (or with +a%/-b% rules), what would the historical P&L look like — for a specific date OR across similar events?
Example triggers
- "if I bought <ticker> today and held N days"
- "backtest this trade"
- "what would this strategy have made"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Risk & sizing
⚡ 📊Backtest with exit rules (take-profit / stop-loss / trailing)
Add take-profit, stop-loss, and trailing-stop rules to a backtest and measure how they reshape the return + risk distribution.
Example triggers
- "what if I stop out at -X%"
- "take profit at +X%"
- "trailing stop backtest"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Risk & sizing
📊 ⚡ 💎Event-driven backtest — apply rule to all historical instances
For any event class, run the same trade rule on every historical occurrence and report the P&L distribution — the workhorse of systematic strategy design.
Example triggers
- "backtest across all instances of <event>"
- "if I had bought every time <X> happened"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Risk & sizing
📊 💎 ⚡ 🌐Risk-adjusted metrics — Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, max DD
Beyond raw returns — compute the industry-standard metrics that make strategies comparable across regimes and asset classes.
Example triggers
- "sharpe ratio"
- "risk-adjusted return"
- "max drawdown"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Risk & sizing
📊 ⚡Walk-forward optimization — detect overfitting before it costs you
Split the sample into in-sample tuning and out-of-sample validation windows, walk forward through time — the gold standard for detecting overfit strategies.
Example triggers
- "is this strategy overfit"
- "walk forward validation"
- "out of sample test"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Fundamental quality
💎 📊 🌐How real are these earnings?
Audit whether reported EPS reflects genuine cash earning power or accounting flattery — one-time gains, receivables stuffing, capitalized opex, changed reserves.
Example triggers
- "are <ticker>'s earnings clean"
- "why is GAAP EPS lower than adjusted"
- "is <ticker> channel stuffing"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Fundamental quality
💎 🌐How durable is this company's moat?
Score a company's competitive moat across 5 lenses (network effects, scale, brand, switching costs, IP) and flag which lens is eroding.
Example triggers
- "does <ticker> have a moat"
- "is <ticker>'s competitive advantage sustainable"
- "will <company> get disrupted"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Fundamental quality
💎 📊Is working capital hiding trouble?
Track DSO / DPO / DIO trends to spot deteriorating collections, channel stuffing, supplier squeezing, or inventory build before the P&L shows it.
Example triggers
- "why is <ticker>'s cash flow weaker than earnings"
- "days sales outstanding trend"
- "is <ticker> channel stuffing"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Fundamental quality
💎 📊 🌐What's driving margins up or down?
Decompose gross/operating/net margin change into price, volume, mix, cost, and one-off components — separates real operating leverage from cyclical tailwinds.
Example triggers
- "why did <ticker>'s margins improve"
- "is this margin expansion sustainable"
- "gross margin decomposition"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Valuation
💎 ⚡ 📊How does this stock's valuation compare to peers?
Compare a stock's EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/B, EV/Sales, and EV/FCF to a defensible peer set — adjusted for growth, margin, and capital-intensity differences.
Example triggers
- "is <ticker> cheap"
- "how does <ticker> compare to <peer>"
- "valuation vs peers"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Valuation
💎 📊DCF with sensitivity to discount rate, growth, and margin
Build a discounted-cash-flow model and stress-test the answer against discount rate, terminal growth, margin, and reinvestment assumptions — output as a tornado, not a point.
Example triggers
- "intrinsic value of <ticker>"
- "DCF for <ticker>"
- "what's <ticker> worth"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Valuation
💎 📊 🌐What growth rate does today's price require?
Invert the DCF — instead of estimating value from assumptions, back out the growth/margin combination the market is already pricing, then ask whether that's plausible.
Example triggers
- "what does the market expect for <ticker>"
- "implied growth rate"
- "is <ticker> priced for perfection"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Valuation
💎 📊 🌐Was that return from earnings, or from re-rating?
Decompose a stock's total return into (a) EPS growth, (b) multiple expansion/contraction, and (c) dividends — separates fundamental progress from mood-driven re-rating.
Example triggers
- "why did <ticker> go up so much"
- "is <ticker>'s rally justified by earnings"
- "P/E expansion or earnings growth"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Cross-asset
📊 🌐 💎What is the bond market telling us that equities aren't?
Read the yield curve, credit spreads, TIPS breakevens, and MOVE index as leading indicators for equity — flag divergences where one asset class is smarter than the other.
Example triggers
- "yield curve signal"
- "credit spreads widening"
- "bond vs equity divergence"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Cross-asset
📊 🌐 ⚡What is the dollar / commodity / equity triangle saying?
Read the DXY-commodity-equity triangle for regime signal — 4 quadrants (strong/weak dollar × up/down commodities) each have distinct equity-sector implications.
Example triggers
- "why are commodities rallying"
- "dollar strength impact on stocks"
- "risk on / risk off signal"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Cross-asset
📊 🌐 ⚖️When do credit spreads signal that trouble is coming?
Monitor IG and HY spread levels, trajectory, and divergences from equity as an early-warning system for corporate stress and recession.
Example triggers
- "credit spreads widening"
- "junk bond spread"
- "is credit stressed"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Positioning & flow
📊 ⚡What is dealer gamma positioning implying for index moves?
Read dealer gamma exposure (GEX), put/call ratios, and vol-of-vol to identify when option-market dynamics will suppress or amplify index moves.
Example triggers
- "dealer gamma"
- "gex level"
- "why is SPX so pinned"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Positioning & flow
📊 ⚡Where are CTAs positioned, and what price breaks their trend?
Estimate systematic CTA and trend-follower positioning by asset, identify the price levels that flip them from long to short (or vice versa) — the "un-wind trigger."
Example triggers
- "CTA positioning"
- "trend followers"
- "systematic un-wind"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Positioning & flow
📊 💎Which names are dangerously crowded by hedge funds?
Identify the most-owned names in hedge-fund 13F holdings (and biggest short-interest names) — high crowding = large unwind risk when the theme breaks.
Example triggers
- "hedge fund crowding"
- "most-owned by hedge funds"
- "crowded trade"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Regulatory / legal
⚖️ 🌐 💎How exposed is this company to sanctions regimes?
Assess direct and secondary sanctions risk for a company — revenue mix by jurisdiction, sanctioned counterparties, secondary-sanction chokepoints, and known enforcement patterns.
Example triggers
- "sanctions risk for <ticker>"
- "OFAC exposure"
- "Russia / Iran / China chip sanctions"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Regulatory / legal
⚖️ 💎 🌐What antitrust remedy is likely — and what's the stock impact?
For an active antitrust case, forecast the likely remedy (behavioral vs structural vs blocked) using DOJ/FTC/EC precedent — and map each outcome to stock impact.
Example triggers
- "DOJ antitrust <ticker>"
- "FTC remedy"
- "will they be broken up"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Macro datapoint
🌐 ⚡ 📊What did the Fed dot plot really say?
Decode the SEP / dot plot changes vs the prior release — median dot, distribution shape, long-run neutral rate shift, and the hawkish/dovish surprise scale vs market-priced.
Example triggers
- "Fed dot plot"
- "SEP update"
- "FOMC projections"
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Macro datapoint
🌐 📊 💎 ⚖️What does yield curve inversion mean for equities and cycle?
Interpret 2s10s and 3m10y inversions in historical context — average lead to recession, false-positive rate, and the equity implication depending on inversion phase.
Example triggers
- "yield curve inverted"
- "2s10s"
- "recession indicator"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Macro datapoint
🌐 📊 ⚖️How should the market read this Chinese macro data?
Decode Chinese CPI, PPI, PMI, credit growth (TSF), and export data — accounting for known statistical revisions, seasonal adjustments, and the "official vs Caixin" split.
Example triggers
- "China CPI"
- "China PMI"
- "TSF"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Corporate actions
💎 📊Is this buyback a real signal or accounting cosmetics?
Test whether a buyback actually shrinks share count and returns value — or is offset by stock-based compensation dilution, funded by debt, or announced at expensive valuation.
Example triggers
- "<ticker> buyback"
- "share repurchase"
- "capital return program"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Corporate actions
💎 📊Will this spinoff actually unlock value?
For an announced spinoff, forecast the parent + spinoff combined value vs pre-announcement — using precedent behavior of spinoffs and parent-remnant multiples.
Example triggers
- "<ticker> spinoff"
- "spin-off value"
- "conglomerate breakup"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Behavioral
📊 ⚡ 💎Is this narrative saturated (or still early)?
Score how saturated a market narrative is (AI, GLP-1, EV) using search volume, analyst mention counts, fund positioning surveys, and cover-of-magazine indicator.
Example triggers
- "is AI trade over"
- "is this narrative priced in"
- "when do fads peak"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Behavioral
📊 ⚡How much of this trade is retail-driven?
Estimate retail participation in a specific name or theme using options volume patterns, small-lot ratio, brokerage inflow data, and social media chatter.
Example triggers
- "is retail buying <ticker>"
- "meme stock signal"
- "retail flow"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Move attribution
📊 ⚡ 🌐What is the day's sector rotation telling us about the regime?
Interpret which sectors led and lagged today (or this week) and match the pattern to macro-regime interpretations — early cycle, late cycle, risk-on, risk-off, or rotation.
Example triggers
- "sector rotation today"
- "why is energy up but tech down"
- "what regime is the market pricing"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Risk & sizing
⚖️ 🌐 📊Is this event a systemic risk or contained?
For a specific stress event (bank failure, hedge-fund blowup, sovereign default), assess systemic-risk propagation using contagion channels, counterparty exposure, and precedent.
Example triggers
- "is <bank> failure systemic"
- "hedge fund blowup"
- "sovereign default risk"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Positioning & flow
💎 📊 ⚡ 👤Is this insider purchase a real signal?
Score an SEC Form 4 insider purchase by conviction (open-market vs option-exercise), size (vs prior comp), timing (blackout window), history (previous buys), and 10b5-1 status — then back-test what similar CEO/CFO buys did next.
Example triggers
- "<CEO> bought <ticker>"
- "insider buying <ticker>"
- "Form 4 filing"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Regulatory / legal
💎 📊 ⚖️ ⚡What did the SEC filings just say?
Continuously watch SEC EDGAR for material 8-K events, Form 4 insider transactions, 13D/13G activist stakes, and 10-K red-flag language for a watchlist — and route each event to the right follow-up playbook.
Example triggers
- "new 8-K for <ticker>"
- "13D filing"
- "insider transactions <ticker>"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-17 -
Move attribution
⚡ 👤What just moved this stock after-hours?
Identify the driver of an after-hours or pre-market move — earnings, guidance, filing, news wire, or sympathy move — and estimate whether the regular-session open will hold, fade, or extend.
Example triggers
- "why is <ticker> up in after-hours"
- "<ticker> pre-market -8%"
- "what happened to <ticker> overnight"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Regulatory / legal
💎 ⚖️ ⚡How much does this class-action lawsuit actually cost the stock?
For a filed securities class action or product-liability suit, estimate the eventual settlement / verdict cost using historical settlement ratios, market-cap-loss theory, and comparable case outcomes.
Example triggers
- "<ticker> class action filed"
- "how much will <ticker> pay for this lawsuit"
- "does this lawsuit matter for the stock"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Structural vs cyclical
🌐 💎 📊 ⚖️Are we in a commodity supercycle?
Test whether a commodity price rally is a genuine multi-decade supercycle (real supply constraint + secular demand) or a cyclical spike — determines whether producers deserve multiple re-rating.
Example triggers
- "is copper in a supercycle"
- "are we in another commodity supercycle"
- "does the green transition mean permanent high metal prices"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Risk & sizing
📊 👤 💎How correlated are my portfolio positions really?
Assess portfolio-wide correlation risk — position pairwise correlations, cluster analysis, factor exposures — to identify concealed concentration ("I own 20 stocks but they all correlate 0.8").
Example triggers
- "am I really diversified"
- "how correlated are my positions"
- "will my portfolio all fall together"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Macro datapoint
🌐 ⚡ 📊How should the market read this CPI print?
Decode a US CPI release — headline vs core, month-over-month vs year-over-year, key sub-components (shelter, services, goods, energy), and market-implied Fed response.
Example triggers
- "CPI came in at <X>"
- "how should stocks react to today's inflation print"
- "was CPI hawkish or dovish"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Historical analog
🌐 ⚖️ 📊How have equities responded to past currency devaluations?
For a sudden currency devaluation (EM or DM), find the closest historical analogs and report distributions of local equity index performance, USD-based-holder returns, and contagion to other markets.
Example triggers
- "how did stocks do after Mexican peso devaluation"
- "is this like 1997 Asia or 2018 Turkey"
- "what happens when a country devalues"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Fundamental quality
💎 📊 🌐How exposed is this company to customer concentration?
Measure customer concentration risk — top-1, top-5, top-10 customer % of revenue, contract terms, key-customer credit health — and estimate the earnings hit if the largest customer walks.
Example triggers
- "how concentrated is <ticker>'s customer base"
- "what happens if <big-customer> leaves <ticker>"
- "is <ticker> dependent on one customer"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Corporate actions
💎 📊 👤What does this dividend cut really signal?
Read a dividend cut in context — payout ratio, cash-flow trend, sector precedents, management framing, and historical post-cut equity performance — to distinguish "kitchen sink" reset from "real distress."
Example triggers
- "<ticker> cut its dividend"
- "should I sell after a dividend cut"
- "is this cut a buy signal"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Behavioral
👤 💎Should I invest a lump sum now or dollar-cost-average in?
Compare lump-sum investing vs dollar-cost-averaging using historical evidence, current market conditions, and behavioral considerations — reveals that lump-sum wins mathematically ~68% of the time but DCA reduces regret risk.
Example triggers
- "should I invest all at once or spread it out"
- "is now a good time to lump-sum"
- "how long should I DCA over"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Structural vs cyclical
💎 🌐 ⚖️ 👤Who wins and loses in the energy transition?
Map the multi-decade energy transition (fossil fuel → electrification + renewables + storage) to specific value pools shifting between sectors — and identify which are structural winners vs cyclical beneficiaries.
Example triggers
- "which stocks benefit from the energy transition"
- "will oil companies survive"
- "is renewable energy investable"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Positioning & flow
📊 ⚡What does this ETF inclusion or exclusion do to the stock?
Estimate the price impact of a stock's addition to (or removal from) a major index or ETF, based on passive AUM tracking, effective free float, and historical inclusion-effect studies.
Example triggers
- "<ticker> being added to S&P 500"
- "how much will S&P 500 inclusion move <ticker>"
- "does index inclusion still matter"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Behavioral
👤I've never bought a stock — what's the professional starting framework?
The absolute-beginner framework for a first-time investor — account types, asset allocation basics, index vs single stocks, contribution priority, and what to avoid doing in the first year.
Example triggers
- "how do I start investing"
- "I have $5K to invest — what do I buy first"
- "should I buy stocks or index funds first"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Regulatory / legal
⚖️ 💎 👤How exposed is this ADR to delisting risk?
For an ADR of a foreign-domiciled company, assess US-listing continuation risk from HFCAA, national-security review, or home-country political actions — and what delisting mechanically does to the shares.
Example triggers
- "will <adr> be delisted from US exchanges"
- "what happens if China ADRs are delisted"
- "is <ticker> at delisting risk"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Corporate actions
💎 📊 ⚡What does this going-private transaction mean?
Interpret a going-private deal (PE buyout, management buyout, family-office take-private) — deal-quality signals, arb spread analysis, historical bump probability, and antitrust risk.
Example triggers
- "<ticker> going private for $X"
- "should I sell my <ticker> after the deal announcement"
- "will there be a bump"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Cross-asset
🌐 📊 💎What is gold telling us about real rates and central-bank credibility?
Interpret gold price moves through the historical framework of real rates + USD + central-bank credibility — separates "inflation hedge" moves from "sovereign risk" moves from "USD reversal" moves.
Example triggers
- "why is gold at record highs"
- "gold and real rates are decoupling"
- "is gold signaling loss of Fed credibility"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Valuation
💎 📊What hidden assets does this company have?
Search the balance sheet, footnotes, and MD&A for undervalued assets (owned real estate, minority stakes, tax NOLs, patents, land) that are carried below market value or not fully reflected in book — often 10-30% of market cap.
Example triggers
- "does <ticker> have hidden assets"
- "what real estate does <ticker> own"
- "how much is <ticker>'s minority stake in <company> worth"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Risk & sizing
👤 💎How do I optimize my HSA as a triple-tax-advantaged investment account?
Use a Health Savings Account not as a healthcare spending account but as the most tax-advantaged retirement account available — triple tax benefit (deductible in, tax-free growth, tax-free out for medical) with proper multi-decade strategy.
Example triggers
- "should I max my HSA"
- "can I invest my HSA money"
- "what's the HSA strategy"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Move attribution
⚡ 📊 👤Is this an index move or a name-specific move?
Decompose a stock's daily return into (a) market beta, (b) sector rotation, and (c) idiosyncratic — separates 'everything moved' from 'this one moved for a reason.'
Example triggers
- "why did <ticker> drop today"
- "is <ticker> underperforming or is the market down"
- "how much of <ticker>'s move is beta"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Behavioral
💎 📊 ⚡ 👤Should I worry about this insider selling?
Distinguish routine insider sales (10b5-1 plans, diversification) from information-driven sales — using transaction pattern, size, timing relative to catalysts, and cluster analysis.
Example triggers
- "<CEO> just sold $50M — should I sell too"
- "why did <insider> dump stock"
- "is this insider selling a warning"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Behavioral
⚡ 📊 👤How normal is this IPO's first-day pop?
Compare an IPO's first-day pop against historical distributions by sector, offering size, and market regime — separating 'normal underwriting discount' (~10-20%) from 'hot deal froth' (50%+) that historically leads to poor 1-year returns.
Example triggers
- "<ipo> popped 80% on day 1 — is this normal"
- "does the IPO pop mean anything"
- "should I buy at the open after IPO"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Cross-asset
📊 🌐 ⚡Is a yen carry unwind happening?
Assess yen carry-trade unwind risk — JPY appreciation velocity, BoJ policy signals, Nikkei-JPY correlation, and cross-asset volatility spillover — and estimate impact on global risk assets.
Example triggers
- "yen just surged 3% — is this a carry unwind"
- "will the BoJ hike again"
- "what happens to US stocks if yen strengthens"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Risk & sizing
📊 ⚡ 💎What is the Kelly-optimal position size for this bet?
Apply the Kelly criterion to size a position based on estimated edge, payoff distribution, and correlation with existing positions — and adjust for real-world uncertainty using fractional Kelly.
Example triggers
- "how big a position should I take"
- "what's the Kelly optimal for this trade"
- "should I go all-in on high-conviction ideas"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Valuation
💎 📊 ⚡Could this company be taken private in an LBO?
Test whether a public company is a plausible leveraged-buyout target — free cash flow stability, debt capacity, ownership structure, size, and industry precedent — providing an implied floor valuation.
Example triggers
- "is <ticker> a takeover target"
- "could KKR buy <ticker>"
- "what's the LBO floor for <ticker>"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Structural vs cyclical
💎 🌐 📊Is this margin expansion structural or cyclical?
For a company or sector showing margin expansion, decompose whether it's structural (moat, scale, mix shift) or cyclical (input costs down, pricing tailwind, temporary demand) — determines whether to capitalize the gain.
Example triggers
- "<ticker>'s operating margin hit a record — will it stick"
- "is US corporate profit share sustainable"
- "are we in a permanent higher-margin regime"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Competitive landscape
📊 💎 🌐Who is gaining and losing market share right now?
Track market share shifts within a category using revenue growth spreads, unit sales data, retail scan data, and customer-win disclosures — early signal of winning franchises vs share-loss decline.
Example triggers
- "who is winning share in <category>"
- "is <ticker> losing share to <competitor>"
- "why is <ticker>'s growth so much lower than the industry"
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Macro datapoint
👤 🌐Is now the right time to refinance my mortgage?
Evaluate a mortgage refinance decision — current rate vs new available rate, closing costs vs monthly savings, break-even period, remaining loan term, and interest-rate expectations.
Example triggers
- "should I refinance my mortgage"
- "rates dropped 0.5% — worth it"
- "how long to break even on refi"
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Competitive landscape
💎 📊 🌐How disruptive is this new entrant to the incumbent?
Score a new entrant's threat to incumbents — technology advantage, funding, unit economics, customer traction, and moat overlap — to distinguish 'hype disruptor' from 'structural threat.'
Example triggers
- "will <new-company> kill <incumbent>"
- "is <startup> a real threat to <ticker>"
- "should I sell <incumbent> because of <disruptor>"
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Macro datapoint
🌐 ⚡ 📊How should the market read this NFP print?
Decode the monthly nonfarm payrolls release — headline change, unemployment rate, wages, revisions, participation — and estimate the market-implied Fed reaction and equity/bond/USD move.
Example triggers
- "how should stocks react to today's jobs number"
- "was NFP bullish or bearish"
- "what does <X>k payrolls mean"
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Cross-asset
🌐 📊 ⚖️ ⚡What is this oil price shock signaling?
Decode a rapid oil price move (10%+ in a week) — separates supply-driven, demand-driven, geopolitical, and financial (positioning) shocks and maps each to distinct equity, bond, and USD implications.
Example triggers
- "why did oil jump 10% today"
- "is this a supply shock or demand shock"
- "what does the oil spike mean for stocks"
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Historical analog
🌐 📊 💎 ⚖️How have markets responded to past oil price shocks?
For a current oil price shock, find the closest historical analogs and report distributions of S&P total return, sector rotation, and CPI pass-through by shock magnitude and geopolitical vs supply origin.
Example triggers
- "oil just jumped 15% — what happens to stocks"
- "is this like 1973 or 2008"
- "how much does oil price go into CPI"
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Positioning & flow
⚡ 📊Will this stock pin to a strike at options expiration?
Assess pinning risk around a monthly or quarterly options expiration — dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain strike, open-interest concentration — and forecast whether the stock will gravitate toward a specific strike into the close.
Example triggers
- "will <ticker> pin to $150 at expiry"
- "what is max pain for <ticker>"
- "does pinning still work"
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Move attribution
⚡ 📊Was this move within or beyond what options predicted?
Compare the actual move to the at-the-money straddle-implied move — separates 'market got the magnitude right' from 'market was surprised' and calibrates future straddle bets.
Example triggers
- "<ticker> moved 8% today — was that priced in"
- "was the earnings move bigger than implied"
- "did the straddle price the CPI correctly"
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Competitive landscape
💎 🌐 👤Who wins and loses in this platform / technology shift?
Map a technology platform shift (cloud, AI, mobile, EV) to specific winners and losers — infrastructure providers vs app developers vs displaced incumbents — using historical technology-shift templates.
Example triggers
- "who wins in AI"
- "who benefits from cloud"
- "will <incumbent> survive the shift to <new-platform>"
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Macro datapoint
🌐 📊 ⚡What is this PMI reading signaling?
Decode ISM Manufacturing / Services PMI releases — the 50-line, sub-indexes (new orders, employment, prices, backlog), and regional PMIs — for what they signal about growth, inflation, and equity leadership.
Example triggers
- "ISM PMI came in at <X>"
- "what does 48 PMI mean for stocks"
- "is manufacturing in recession"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Competitive landscape
💎 📊 🌐How much pricing power does this company actually have?
Test a company's true pricing power — historical price/volume elasticity, competitor pricing behavior, contract escalators, and price-vs-inflation pass-through — to determine whether it's a 'must have' or a 'nice to have.'
Example triggers
- "does <ticker> have pricing power"
- "will <ticker> hold price against inflation"
- "why can't <ticker> raise prices"
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Historical analog
🌐 📊 💎 👤How have equities behaved in similar rate-hike cycles?
Map the current Fed rate-hike cycle to the closest historical analogs — pace, terminal rate, real-rate path — and report distributions of S&P returns, sector leadership, and recession timing.
Example triggers
- "how did stocks do in past rate hike cycles"
- "is this like 1994 or 2004 or 2022"
- "what happens to stocks when the Fed stops hiking"
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Risk & sizing
👤 💎Is my portfolio drifted enough to need rebalancing?
Check whether a portfolio has drifted beyond target-allocation bands — trigger rules (calendar vs threshold), tax-efficient rebalance techniques, and cost-benefit analysis of when to act.
Example triggers
- "should I rebalance my portfolio"
- "how much has my allocation drifted"
- "when to rebalance"
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Fundamental quality
💎 📊 🌐How high-quality is this revenue?
Score reported revenue quality — recurring vs one-time, cash-collected vs booked, organic vs acquired, US GAAP vs 'adjusted' — to determine whether the top line deserves the multiple the market is paying.
Example triggers
- "is <ticker>'s revenue growth real"
- "how much of <ticker>'s revenue is recurring"
- "why is <ticker>'s revenue growing but cash flow isn't"
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Risk & sizing
👤 💎Should I do a Roth conversion this year?
Evaluate whether the current year is optimal for a traditional-IRA-to-Roth conversion — current vs future marginal rate, market drawdown timing, Medicare IRMAA thresholds, and multi-year conversion strategy.
Example triggers
- "should I do a Roth conversion"
- "market is down, is now a good time to convert"
- "how much to convert this year"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Regulatory / legal
⚖️ 💎 📊What does this SEC enforcement action mean for the stock?
Interpret an SEC / DOJ enforcement action (Wells Notice, subpoena, formal investigation, litigation) — score by severity, likely resolution, and probability of secondary triggers (class actions, credit rating, executive turnover).
Example triggers
- "<ticker> received Wells Notice"
- "SEC investigating <ticker>"
- "what happens when the SEC subpoenas a company"
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Corporate actions
📊 💎 👤How dilutive is this secondary offering?
Assess a secondary equity offering's dilution impact — offering size % of float, use of proceeds, pricing discount, insider participation, and stock reaction — to distinguish 'growth capital' from 'desperate capital.'
Example triggers
- "<ticker> filed a secondary offering"
- "how dilutive is this raise"
- "should I sell before the pricing"
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Structural vs cyclical
💎 🌐 📊Is this demand growth secular or cyclical?
For a category showing strong demand growth (data-center power, GLP-1 drugs, EV batteries), decompose whether it's a secular trend (adoption S-curve) or cyclical (inventory, capex over-order, one-off pull-forward).
Example triggers
- "is data-center demand secular or cyclical"
- "will GLP-1 sales keep growing"
- "is this a real trend or a cycle"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Behavioral
💎 📊 ⚡Are we at a sentiment extreme worth fading?
Combine multiple sentiment indicators (AAII, put/call, VIX, fund manager surveys, media narrative) into a composite score to identify contrarian entry / exit points at genuine extremes.
Example triggers
- "is sentiment too bearish"
- "everyone is scared — time to buy"
- "is the market too euphoric"
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Positioning & flow
⚡ 📊 👤Is this name at short-squeeze risk?
Score a name's short-squeeze setup from short interest % of float, days-to-cover, borrow cost, call-option skew, and catalyst calendar — separates squeeze-vulnerable names from noise.
Example triggers
- "is <ticker> going to squeeze"
- "how high can this squeeze"
- "should I short <ticker> with 30% short interest"
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Fundamental quality
💎 📊How much is stock-based compensation actually costing shareholders?
Quantify SBC's real dilution and cash cost — vesting schedules, buyback offsets, adjusted vs GAAP EPS gap — to determine whether 'adjusted' earnings are honest or whitewash.
Example triggers
- "how much stock-based comp is <ticker> paying"
- "is the buyback offsetting dilution"
- "why is GAAP EPS so different from adjusted"
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Corporate actions
👤 ⚡ 📊Does a stock split actually mean anything?
Evaluate whether a stock split is a meaningful signal — historical post-split return studies, retail-accessibility effect, options market participation — vs pure cosmetic accounting.
Example triggers
- "does a stock split matter"
- "should I buy <ticker> after the split"
- "why does <ticker> keep splitting"
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Valuation
💎 📊What's the sum-of-parts value of this conglomerate?
Value a multi-segment company as the sum of its parts using peer-group multiples per segment — reveals hidden value (conglomerate discount) or hidden risk (segment losses masked by consolidation).
Example triggers
- "what is <conglomerate> worth broken up"
- "sum of parts <ticker>"
- "is <ticker> trading at a conglomerate discount"
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Fundamental quality
💎 ⚖️ 🌐How exposed is this company to supplier concentration?
Measure supplier concentration risk — top-1, top-5 supplier dependencies, geographic concentration, single-sourced components — and estimate margin / operations impact if a critical supplier is disrupted.
Example triggers
- "who supplies <ticker>"
- "what if <supplier> stops shipping"
- "is <ticker> single-sourced"
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Risk & sizing
👤 💎What tax-loss harvesting opportunities exist in my portfolio right now?
Scan a taxable portfolio for tax-loss-harvesting opportunities — losses to realize, wash-sale rules, tax-lot-level accounting, and substitute securities — to reduce current-year tax without changing market exposure.
Example triggers
- "should I harvest tax losses"
- "what's my capital gains this year"
- "wash-sale rules for <ticker>"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19 -
Historical analog
💎 📊 🌐 👤How have past tech bubbles unwound?
For a suspected tech / narrative bubble, find the closest historical analogs — dot-com, 1972 Nifty Fifty, 2021 SPACs — and report the drawdown depth, duration, and which subset of names survived.
Example triggers
- "is this an AI bubble"
- "is this like 1999"
- "how deep did the dot-com crash go"
Request this analysis → v1 · updated 2026-08-19
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